Which goals scored/allowed statistics yield Pythagorean points?


When I was evaluating last season’s league projections and creating this season’s with the Pythagorean expectation, I was reminded that I hadn’t really studied which pairs of goals scored and allowed result in a specific expected point total.  In a league competition, it’s possible to reach a point total in various ways, and the combination […] Read more ›

A statistical summary of 2013-14 league projections


To complete the look back at the 2013-14 league projections, below is a table that compiles the performance of our goal estimates, and the expected point model to come from that.  The competitions are sorted by the number of teams in the competition, then the points RMSE.  Unless stated by a number next to the […] Read more ›

Assessing the Projections: The rest of our 2013-14 leagues (Part 2)


This is the third and final part of our exercise in humility — evaluating and assessing our league projections from the 2013-14 European season.  At some point in the future I’ll post the projected league tables, but I wanted to write my assessments and besides the 2014-15 season has just started. France (Ligue 2) This […] Read more ›

Assessing the Projections: The rest of our 2013/14 leagues (Part 2)


Following on from my most recent post, I continue looking back at the preseason projections that Aaron Nielsen and I made at the start of 2013-14 European season.  I will add projected and actual league tables soon; I wanted to get my assessments written down now. Austria With the exception of newly promoted Grödig, our forecast model did […] Read more ›

2014-15 Premiership Predictions


For predictions from previous seasons see the following links: 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 For analysis of predictions in prior seasons see here: 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 These predictions are based on Team Ratings – the methodology of which can be found here Finally for pre-season predictions of the points scored by the teams in the next four … Continue reading Read more ›


Assessing the Projections: The rest of our 2013/14 leagues


Before the World Cup  I started to take a look back at the league projections that Aaron Nielsen and I made at the start of the 2013-14 European season.  I took a break during the World Cup to concentrate on the Soccermetrics Connect API, and then took some time away.  With the 2014-15 European season […] Read more ›

Projecting the 2014-15 English Premier League

A new season of the English Premier League starts on Saturday, and the interwebs are full of previews and predictions of what will happen over the next nine months.  I’ll leave the previews to the journalists, but I will present expectations of the final league table here. A lot of people are visiting this site for the […] Read more ›