Category Archives: shots on target

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Is there a larger spread of talent between Premiership teams’ ability to generate attacking events or prevent them?

Simple one this – firstly let’s take the last twelve Premiership seasons and look at the how the number of goals scored and allowed by a team are distributed. So the distribution of goals conceded somewhat resembles a normal distribution – with an equal mean and median (50). The distribution of goals scored is more … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
goals, shots, shots on target

How accurate would a perfect Premiership prediction model be?

Fair warning: The work below is right at the limit of my understanding of statistics – if someone spots an error or a failure in the logic I’d appreciate it if you’d let me know. Danny Page came to my aid on twitter yesterday, and linked me to Phil Birnbaum’s terrific site. I encourage anyone … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
goals, points, Premiership, shots, shots on target

Are Premiership games different under floodlights?

It occurred to me that teams may play differently under floodlights. Maybe shoot more on the off chance that the ‘keepers visibility wasn’t as good as in natural light? Now my data doesn’t have kick off times so I’ve split it two ways. Firstly I’ve split the sample into midweek and weekend games, on the … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
Floodlights, goals, Shooting percentage, shots, shots on target

How quickly do the ‘advanced’ metrics regress to their final values?

This post has been a long time coming. I think there’s tons of evidence on this site (link) that shots are the best predictor I have of performance in the following season but, because of the way my data was stored, I’ve yet to produce anything that showed how these metrics perform within an individual … Continue reading » Read more ›

AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
goals, PDO, Save percentage, Shooting percentage, shots, shots on target

Where Do Shots Go To Die? The Premier League in 2010/11

Blocked shots don’t typically make the highlight reel. Of course, they don’t, you might say – they’re a non-event. Well, they are, and they aren’t. They’re an event that wasn’t of much consequence in the scheme of things. But they are still “events” in… Read more ›

AuthorChris Anderson
Categories
2010-11 season, English Premier League, EPL, shots, shots blocked, shots on goal, shots on target, Statistics

Shots and Goals In the Big 4: Offensive Performance Across Leagues in 2010/11

During the past year, I have compared teams across the Big 4 leagues (Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A) with regard to various performance indicators. With the Bundesliga about to get underway tonight, I thought it’d be interesting to see w… Read more ›

AuthorChris Anderson
Categories
2010-11 season, Bundesliga, English Premier League, goals, La Liga, offensive production, Serie A, shots on goal, shots on target, Statistics

Premier League Defensive Bulwarks in 2010/11: Arsenal (?!) and Manchester United

In the next installment of “what happened last season in the Premier League?”, here are season totals on teams’ defensive prowess.  Much has been made of Arsenal’s inability to defend well and its need to improve defense during this transfer windo… Read more ›

AuthorChris Anderson
Categories
Arsenal, defense, defensive production, English Premier League, EPL, Fulham, Manchester United, Newcastle, shot ratios, shots on goal, shots on target, Statistics, Wigan Athletic