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On the over-performance of Liverpool in ’13-14 compared to previous Premiership champions

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From Michael Caley on twitter today: @RWhittall @JamesTylerESPN @mixedknuts @JamesWGrayson Have Liverpool overperformed by more than the typical champion? That’s harder to say. — Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) April 23, 2014 I think that the first part of this is intuitive. There’s a group of good teams at the top of the table, some will under-perform … Continue reading
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220 down, 160 to go – Comparing the preseason predictions

For the source post containing the original predictions click here, and for a summary of how I’m analysing the predictions during the season click here. Both images look better in full size – feel free to click on them to bring up their full resolution equivalents. Firstly let’s look at how the models are doing … Continue reading
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200 down, 180 to go – data dump

Data dump of the season so far. There’ll be a team summary similar to this one up when I write one. The previous data dump can be found here. For definitions click on the link before each table. TSR PDO Qualcomp faced (higher = tougher opponents) QualcompTSR (TSR adjusted to take opponent strength into account) … Continue reading »
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Which metrics are the most repeatable between the first 19 and final 19 games of the season?

In the past couple of months I’ve posted three times on which metrics are the most repeatable over the remainder of the season, as well as how predictive they are of the number of points a given team will score going forward. Those posts came after 9, 14, and 15 games had been played in … Continue reading »
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The two halves of Southampton’s season

Southampton’s rate of point scoring has dropped off somewhat – they’ve recorded just six points in their past eight games. Here’s a quick table outlining their underlying numbers in their first nine and last eight games played thus far in ’13-14: Their TSR has dropped off somewhat, but that’s likely a product of scheduling – … Continue reading »
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170 down, 210 to go – data dump

Data dump of the season so far. No team summaries this week – I’ll probably stick to doing them every 10 or so games. The previous data dump can be found here. For definitions click on the link before each table. TSR PDO Qualcomp faced (higher = tougher opponents) QualcompTSR (TSR adjusted to take opponent … Continue reading »
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