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220 down, 160 to go – Comparing the preseason predictions

For the source post containing the original predictions click here, and for a summary of how I’m analysing the predictions during the season click here. Both images look better in full size – feel free to click on them to bring up their full resolution equivalents. Firstly let’s look at how the models are doing … Continue reading »
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200 down, 180 to go – data dump

Data dump of the season so far. There’ll be a team summary similar to this one up when I write one. The previous data dump can be found here. For definitions click on the link before each table. TSR PDO Qualcomp faced (higher = tougher opponents) QualcompTSR (TSR adjusted to take opponent strength into account) … Continue reading »
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Which metrics are the most repeatable between the first 19 and final 19 games of the season?

In the past couple of months I’ve posted three times on which metrics are the most repeatable over the remainder of the season, as well as how predictive they are of the number of points a given team will score going forward. Those posts came after 9, 14, and 15 games had been played in … Continue reading »
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The two halves of Southampton’s season

Southampton’s rate of point scoring has dropped off somewhat – they’ve recorded just six points in their past eight games. Here’s a quick table outlining their underlying numbers in their first nine and last eight games played thus far in ’13-14: Their TSR has dropped off somewhat, but that’s likely a product of scheduling – … Continue reading »
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170 down, 210 to go – data dump

Data dump of the season so far. No team summaries this week – I’ll probably stick to doing them every 10 or so games. The previous data dump can be found here. For definitions click on the link before each table. TSR PDO Qualcomp faced (higher = tougher opponents) QualcompTSR (TSR adjusted to take opponent … Continue reading »
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A look at 13.4 years of the Premiership. Part I: The mainstays

This is the first of a multiple part series in which I’m going to take a look back at the evolution of the Premiership since the turn of the century. As the following plots get pretty busy once a threshold of teams is passed I’ve broken down the teams into groups that I think will … Continue reading »
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Boy do I miss Martin Jol (alt. title ‘Fulham look better all of a sudden’)

Fulham have taken a higher proportion of shots in their matches and faced far tougher opponents in the last three games than they did in their first 13. As a result they’ve picked up more points despite a terrible run of sv%, which has sent their PDO through the floor – a place from which … Continue reading »
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