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A second look at the Infostrada penalty data, and stripping them from the PA stats (part I)

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This was planned to be a short post but I keep finding interesting nuggets and no-one in their right mind would read the whole thing in it’s entirety, so I’ll split it up somewhat. I think we are all aware that the data provided to the BBC by the Press Association isn’t perfect. I certainly … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
PDO, penalties, Premiership, Save percentage, Shooting percentage, shots

Is there a larger spread of talent between Premiership teams’ ability to generate attacking events or prevent them?

Simple one this – firstly let’s take the last twelve Premiership seasons and look at the how the number of goals scored and allowed by a team are distributed. So the distribution of goals conceded somewhat resembles a normal distribution – with an equal mean and median (50). The distribution of goals scored is more … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
goals, shots, shots on target

315 down, 65 to go. The Premiership so far

Same as after 261 games, with the important races at the top, and a data dump at the bottom. The European spots Last time round qualcompTSR projected the race would finish like this. The same four teams are still in contention although, as I said at the time, Everton were long shots to get in, … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Norwich City, PDO, points, Premiership, Quality of competition, Queens Park Rangers, Reading, Save percentage, Shooting percentage, shots, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur, West Bromwich Albion, West Ham United, Wigan Athletic

How accurate would a perfect Premiership prediction model be?

Fair warning: The work below is right at the limit of my understanding of statistics – if someone spots an error or a failure in the logic I’d appreciate it if you’d let me know. Danny Page came to my aid on twitter yesterday, and linked me to Phil Birnbaum’s terrific site. I encourage anyone … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
goals, points, Premiership, shots, shots on target

261 down, 119 to go. The Premiership so far

A look at the interesting races and team summaries at the top, for the data dump check out the bottom of the post. The European spots Let start with Everton. They’ve been simply fantastic, the work David Moyes does at that club year after year is nothing short of remarkable. That being said there’s only … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Norwich City, PDO, Premiership, Queens Park Rangers, Reading, Save percentage, Shooting percentage, shots, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur, West Bromwich Albion, West Ham United, Wigan Athletic

Are Premiership games different under floodlights?

It occurred to me that teams may play differently under floodlights. Maybe shoot more on the off chance that the ‘keepers visibility wasn’t as good as in natural light? Now my data doesn’t have kick off times so I’ve split it two ways. Firstly I’ve split the sample into midweek and weekend games, on the … Continue reading »
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AuthorJameswgrayson
Categories
Floodlights, goals, Shooting percentage, shots, shots on target