Projections for 2014-15 Eredivisie (End of Summer transfer window)

The summer transfer window is now closed, so it’s a good time to update the projections for this season’s Eredivisie. If you want to find more details about our projections and how we did them, consult this post. Here are the updated projections for the Eredivisie: In contrast to our preseason projection, we forecast a […] Read more ›

Projections for 2014-15 English Premier League (End of Summer transfers)

The summer transfer window is now closed, so it’s a good time to update the projections for this season’s Premier League. A lot of people are visiting this site for the first time, so an explanation of these projections is in order. These league projections are a combination of expected goal statistics based on statistical […] Read more ›

Europa League second favourites in pot 3

The 48 clubs in today’s Europa League draw have been divided into four pots based on UEFA coefficients. As explained in yesterday’s article, this can lead to misclassifications and potential groups of death. In this case, a group containing Napoli, … Continue reading Read more ›

Expected Goals: Foot Shots Versus Headers

My last article on expected goals introduced the concept of using exponential decay to estimate the probability of scoring based on the shooter’s distance from the goal. The article received lots of feedback (thanks everyone!!), with a couple of common comments standing out that I wanted to address. Simplifying The Model One common theme was whether [...] Read more ›


CL draw system increases Group of Death chance

The Champions League draw pots for this evening are based on the UEFA coefficients for clubs at the end of last season. Those coefficients are based on a five year performance in European competition. In general, this system works reasonably … Continue reading Read more ›

Predicting the Eredivisie: A guest post by Steve Lawrence

Last season, I collected 13 forecasts before the 2013/2014 Eredivisie season, the results of which can be found here. Throughout last season, Relative Age Effect expert Steve Lawrence, an Englishman living in Amsterdam, sent me all sorts of graphs relating to … Continue reading Read more ›