Four years in football analytics

Four years ago this week, sitting on the third floor of my university’s library, I launched 5 Added Minutes. For a couple of months, the blog was simply a place to express frustrations at media clichés and received wisdom in football, but it quickly evolved into a medium for me to use data and analytics to challenge the conversations that […] Read more ›

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The Ballon D’or numbers game: Messi vs Ronaldo Part II

In the previous post, we established that there is a distinct Europe-Americas divide when it comes to Ronaldo-Messi preferences, according to Ballon D’or voting choices. This is also noticeable when breaking down the voting by voter type – captains, coaches and media, below: Regardless of your role, if you’re from the Americas you tend to […] Read more ›

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I won’t be at 2015 OptaPro Forum, but my work will be there

A couple of months ago, OptaPro — Opta Sports’ professional services branch — announced a call for proposals for its Analytics Forum in early February.  Over 100 proposals were submitted, including a couple of mine. I am pleased to announce that one of my proposals was one of ten accepted for presentation at the Forum — […] Read more ›

The Ballon D’or numbers game: Messi vs Ronaldo Part I

5 Added Minutes doesn’t care too much for Messi vs Ronaldo debates, but it does care for data and insights into behaviour, of which the Ballon D’or voting system provides lots of. Each country has three voters – the national captain, national coach and member of the media – who provide three votes worth 5, […] Read more ›

Euro Club Index: Chelsea would win title in 2 seasons out of every 3 from here

With 17 matches remaining in this season’s Premier League, the race to the title currently involves just two teams, one of which has around twice the chance of the other of ending the season as 2014/2015 Premier League champions. Five … Continue reading Read more ›

Guest post: A prediction update from Steve Lawrence

The Scoreboard Journalism challenge for points and place predictions from prominent media, stats modellers, fans and online publishers for both the Eredivisie and the Premier League has attracted considerable interest and the original posts can be found at: http://scoreboardjournalism.wordpress.com/2014/08/22/48-forecasts-the-eredivisie-predicted/ & … Continue reading Read more ›

A quick cautionary note on predictiveness and R-squared

Yesterday Sander IJtsma published a nice post looking at various metrics and how well they predict future performance (note 1). Using R-squared as a measure of how predictable of future performance is, Sander’s summary is such “The conclusion from these graphs is quite simple actually. Expected Goals Ratio forms an impressive improvement on raw shot … Continue reading Read more ›

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