Assessing the Projections: The rest of our 2013/14 leagues

Before the World Cup  I started to take a look back at the league projections that Aaron Nielsen and I made at the start of the 2013-14 European season.  I took a break during the World Cup to concentrate on the Soccermetrics Connect API, and then took some time away.  With the 2014-15 European season […] Read more ›

Projecting the 2014-15 English Premier League

A new season of the English Premier League starts on Saturday, and the interwebs are full of previews and predictions of what will happen over the next nine months.  I’ll leave the previews to the journalists, but I will present expectations of the final league table here. A lot of people are visiting this site for the […] Read more ›

A Roundup Of July’s Articles.

I’ve included links to some of the articles I’ve written over the previous month, which have been published by Pinnaclesports and BettingExpertAs ever the aim is to highlight the impact that random variation can have on sporting contests and the d… Read more ›


Predictions for the ’14-15 Football League

Caveats: 1) These predictions are all based on TSR^2*PDO, which performed pretty well in the Premiership predictions last season. That said, I’ve only looked at one seasons worth of numbers in the Football League so I won’t guarantee it works as well. 2) I have no idea how well teams that are Promoted/Relegated to each … Continue reading Read more ›