CL draw system increases Group of Death chance

The Champions League draw pots for this evening are based on the UEFA coefficients for clubs at the end of last season. Those coefficients are based on a five year performance in European competition. In general, this system works reasonably … Continue reading Read more ›

Predicting the Eredivisie: A guest post by Steve Lawrence

Last season, I collected 13 forecasts before the 2013/2014 Eredivisie season, the results of which can be found here. Throughout last season, Relative Age Effect expert Steve Lawrence, an Englishman living in Amsterdam, sent me all sorts of graphs relating to … Continue reading Read more ›

New faces but even less time: managers in the Premier League

New names have dominated Premier League managerial appointments in the last two years, but there is some evidence that these less-familiar faces are being given even less time than ‘experienced’ Premier League managers to improve their teams. Four Premier League clubs appointed new managers this summer; three of these appointments were new to the league (van […] Read more ›

How unlikely were The Invincibles?

This summer marked the 10-year anniversary of Arsenal completing their Invincibles season; a team remembered not only as a ruthless winning machine but also for being totally unlike anything previously seen in English football. There has been plenty of good writing on The Invincibles – indeed this post was inspired by Dennis Bergkamp’s recent autobiography – and this […] Read more ›

48 Forecasts: The Eredivisie predicted

Following on from last year, we have again collected Eredivisie predictions (you can download them all here) but instead of 13 to follow through the season, we now have a total of 48 from online media, fans, statistical models and … Continue reading Read more ›

Which goals scored/allowed statistics yield Pythagorean points?

When I was evaluating last season’s league projections and creating this season’s with the Pythagorean expectation, I was reminded that I hadn’t really studied which pairs of goals scored and allowed result in a specific expected point total.  In a league competition, it’s possible to reach a point total in various ways, and the combination […] Read more ›

A statistical summary of 2013-14 league projections

To complete the look back at the 2013-14 league projections, below is a table that compiles the performance of our goal estimates, and the expected point model to come from that.  The competitions are sorted by the number of teams in the competition, then the points RMSE.  Unless stated by a number next to the […] Read more ›

Assessing the Projections: The rest of our 2013-14 leagues (Part 2)

This is the third and final part of our exercise in humility — evaluating and assessing our league projections from the 2013-14 European season.  At some point in the future I’ll post the projected league tables, but I wanted to write my assessments and besides the 2014-15 season has just started. France (Ligue 2) This […] Read more ›